This season’s Premier League champions will be determined by simulating the remaining Premier League matches 800 times.
In the midst of a nail-biting title chase between Arsenal and Manchester City, the remaining Premier League matches for the 2022-23 season have been simulated an eye-watering 800 times.
Manchester United, which won the League Cup over Newcastle on Sunday, is now tied for fourth place in the Premier League alongside City and Arsenal.
The Red Devils sit third in the league rankings, eight points behind Arsenal, with Erik ten Hag’s men behind City by six points with a game in hand.
Craig Edwards, a Twitter user, has now released the results of an 800-times Premier League simulation, revealing who is likely to finish in the top four.
Arsenal have a 53.44 percent chance of winning the Premier League this season, according to the data.
The rest of the Premier League season simulated 800 times (27/02).— Craig Edwards (@UnderthePitch) February 27, 2023
– @Arsenal still favourites for the league
– @WestHam looking much better after this weekend
– @SouthamptonFC and @afcbournemouth relegated 70% of the time
Here’s the full table – find the breakdown below. pic.twitter.com/oRHpxtqzJn
And the Gunners have a 39.44 percent chance of finishing second in the Premier League table rather than first.
City, on the other hand, have a 44.15 percent chance of finishing ahead of Arsenal and keeping the title, with a 47.33 percent chance of finishing second.
The simulated results effectively ruled out United challenging for the Premier League crown, with the Red Devils having only a 2.42 percent probability of finishing first.
The grouped breakdown:— Craig Edwards (@UnderthePitch) February 27, 2023
I am assuming that 6th place will get the Conference League spot, as Manchester United have won the EFL Cup and will most likely finish in the Top 5. pic.twitter.com/a3tP3vMobI
The findings, however, revealed that Ten Hag’s side will qualify for the Champions League next season with a 51.91 percent chance of finishing third.
Tottenham, who are presently fourth in the Premier League rankings, will have the challenge of finishing in the top four this season.
A rough look at the difficulty of each teams remaining opponents.— Craig Edwards (@UnderthePitch) February 27, 2023
Take this with a pinch of salt – this is a just a quick index I created based off of current league positions of opponents (the machine learning will teach itself this).@Everton with a tough run-in. pic.twitter.com/IGEWe1QkMc
How the simulations are created:https://t.co/ZH6BBI95Z2— Craig Edwards (@UnderthePitch) February 27, 2023
According to the simulation, Spurs have a 31.81 percent chance of placing fourth, a 23.41 percent chance of finishing third, and an 18.96 percent chance of finishing third.